As Israel approaches its scheduled national elections in October 2026, the political landscape is witnessing significant realignments within the right-wing nationalist-religious camp. The far-right faction, composed of Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Strength) and Bezalel Smotrich’s National-Religious Party–Religious Zionism, faces mounting pressure to coordinate their electoral strategies. While their alliance was crucial in securing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition in the 2022 elections, subsequent political divisions and shifting public sentiments have threatened their collective strength. The emergence of new nationalist factions and internal ideological rivalries has forced these two controversial parties to re-evaluate whether to run as a unified slate or campaign independently.
The Rise of Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism
The political union between Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism was initially forged under intense pressure from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to prevent the loss of right-wing votes. Historically, Otzma Yehudit emerged from the hardline Kahanist movement, advocating for ultra-nationalist policies such as the annexation of the West Bank and the encouragement of emigration for hostile populations. According to the Jewish Virtual Library, the party struggled for years to cross the electoral threshold independently, failing in several consecutive cycles. In contrast, Bezalel Smotrich's faction represented the more established, mainstream religious-nationalist settler community, which sought to expand Jewish sovereignty through state institutions and bureaucratic influence. Their joint list in the 2022 elections proved to be a historic success, securing 14 Knesset seats and allowing them to play the role of political kingmaker in the subsequent governing coalition.
Following their joint victory, the factions executed a pre-arranged agreement to split into independent parliamentary groups within the Knesset. This split, documented by the Israel Democracy Institute, allowed both Ben-Gvir and Smotrich to pursue their respective political agendas while serving in senior ministerial roles. Ben-Gvir assumed the post of National Security Minister, expanding his influence over the police force and advocating for more aggressive security measures. Meanwhile, Smotrich took control of the Ministry of Finance, where he gained unprecedented civilian authority over administration and settlement expansion in Judea and Samaria. However, their separate legislative identities have highlighted deep strategic differences and personal rivalries that complicate their cooperative history as the 2026 elections loom.
Key Facts about the Far-Right Slate
The strategic environment surrounding the far-right camp in 2026 is defined by several core political realities. First, public polling indicates a significant divergence in the independent electoral strength of the two factions. Second, the emergence of rival political actors has threatened to siphon votes from their traditional nationalist base. Finally, the intense pressure from the broader right-wing coalition to maintain unity represents a defining factor of their current campaigns.
- Electoral Threshold Threats: Polling throughout mid-2026 suggests that Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism faction is hovering near the critical 3.25 percent Knesset threshold, placing its parliamentary future in jeopardy if it runs alone.
- Asymmetric Polling Strength: In contrast to Smotrich's struggles, Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit has maintained stable support, with polls projecting the party to win between seven and eight seats independently.
- The Challenge of New Factions: The launch of the new nationalist-religious party Amcha Yisrael under retired IDF Brigadier General Ofer Winter has fractured the religious-right electorate, siphoning support from both established factions.
Strategic Calculations and Electoral Rivalry in 2026
The primary friction between Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism lies in the asymmetric polling numbers that make a joint run highly contested. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly warned that running on separate slates could lead to a catastrophic waste of right-wing votes, invoking historical precedents where a fragmented right-wing bloc led to center-left victories. To address this risk, Netanyahu publicly urged Ben-Gvir and Smotrich to reunite, warning that a split vote could collapse the nationalist coalition and bring opposition parties to power. Smotrich has expressed willingness to rejoin forces, recognizing that his party's survival depends on a unified nationalist-religious ticket. However, Ben-Gvir has strongly resisted these pleas, arguing that a combined ticket with Smotrich would drag down Otzma Yehudit’s independent appeal and cost his party multiple Knesset seats.
This internal deadlock has been severely exacerbated by the sudden political entry of Ofer Winter and his new party. According to the Jewish Virtual Library, Winter’s party, Amcha Yisrael, launched in August 2026, presents a major threat to Smotrich’s traditional religious-nationalist voter base. Winter, a highly respected former military commander, appeals directly to nationalist-religious voters who are frustrated with the current government’s handling of security and ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions. Because Amcha Yisrael has surged in the polls, it has further squeezed Smotrich's Religious Zionism, leaving the faction with virtually no path to crossing the threshold without an alliance. Consequently, the rivalry is no longer just about political prestige, but about the fundamental survival of the religious-Zionist representation in the next Knesset.
The Future of the Right-Wing Bloc and Israel's Governance
The resolution of the conflict between Ben-Gvir and Smotrich will have profound consequences for the overall stability of the Israeli right-wing bloc. If the two far-right factions fail to unite, the potential collapse of Smotrich’s party below the threshold could deprive the nationalist camp of crucial seats, shifting the balance of power toward center-left coalitions. Conversely, a forced unification might alienate moderate religious-Zionist voters who prefer more state-centric figures like Ofer Winter over the populist rhetoric of Otzma Yehudit. This delicate balance of power underscores how fragile the current right-wing coalition remains as it approaches the October 2026 vote.
Ultimately, the ongoing maneuvers of these far-right factions highlight the deeper ideological transformation taking place within Israel's religious-nationalist public. The electorate is increasingly divided between populist, identity-driven politics represented by Ben-Gvir, and state-centric, security-focused nationalism represented by new challengers. The outcome of the October 2026 elections will determine which of these visions will dominate the political discourse in the coming years. As both leaders navigate this high-stakes campaign, their decisions will shape not only their political futures but also the legislative agenda and national security policies of the State of Israel.