Assad’s fall did not leave southern Syria under one uncontested authority. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group that led the offensive that toppled Assad, became central to the new authorities in Damascus. Other armed factions retained local power, while the Islamic State (Daesh) remained active in parts of the country. For Israel, the relevant question is which groups can reach the Golan frontier, obtain weapons, or use local disorder to plan attacks.
The distinction between HTS-led authorities and Daesh matters. They are separate organizations with different histories, command structures, and objectives. The UN’s 2025 reporting described active Daesh cells and continued clashes among armed actors. It also recorded attempts to bring factions under a centralized command, with some groups resisting integration. Readers can see how the change affected Israel’s border posture in the account of the ceasefire line.
Risks near the Golan
The southern provinces of Quneitra and Daraa border the Golan area, and local armed groups have operated there during Syria’s civil war. After Assad’s forces withdrew, the uncertainty concerned who would control checkpoints, weapons depots, and routes toward the frontier. The UN reported continuing security incidents in Daraa and Quneitra and a fragmented national security environment. Armed groups in these provinces make their locations, weapons, and activity relevant to Israel’s border security.
HTS’s leadership and governance record are relevant to assessing the new authorities, while Daesh poses a separate transnational jihadist threat. The UN’s 2025 report on Syria describes activity by Daesh, HTS, the Syrian National Army, the Syrian Democratic Forces, and Turkish forces in different regions. This wider picture warns against reducing all post-Assad security problems to a single Islamist actor.
Russia, Turkey, and Kurdish forces
Russia had backed Assad militarily and maintained facilities on Syria’s coast. After the regime fell, it had to negotiate with the new authorities to preserve a presence. Turkey, which supported Syrian opposition forces, gained influence and sought a role in shaping the new security order. Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces retained control in the northeast and negotiated with Damascus over integration. Their contest with Turkey and Turkish-backed factions is concentrated far from the Golan, but it shapes Syria’s national balance.
The Institute for National Security Studies’ account one year after Assad’s fall describes Turkey’s expanded role and the new authorities’ effort to diversify foreign relationships. INSS also details the reduced, changing Russian footprint in its assessment of Russia’s return as a security actor. These are separate from the immediate threat posed by armed Islamist groups near Israel.