The landscape of Israel’s national-religious camp has shifted significantly as the country prepares for the pivotal general election scheduled for October 27, 2026. Under the leadership of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the right-wing bloc is experiencing profound ideological and strategic splintering that threatens its parliamentary majority. The central friction lies within the complex partnership between Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party and Itamar Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit, two factions that ran on a single slate in 2022 but are competing independently in the current cycle. This divergence has triggered intense anxiety within the Likud-led coalition, where minor fluctuations in voting percentages could determine the national leadership.
Historically, the alliance of these two parties served as a kingmaker, securing 14 Knesset seats in 2022 and enabling Netanyahu to establish a stable right-wing administration. However, persistent internal rivalries and competing visions for the future of the Judea and Samaria region have fractured their joint front. While Smotrich has focused on institutional restructuring and expanding civilian infrastructure, Ben Gvir has prioritized public rhetoric and direct control over internal security apparatuses. Consequently, the decision to run separate slates has transformed the dynamics of the election, with each party battling to cross the mandatory 3.25 percent electoral threshold.
Evolution of the Religious Zionist and Kahanist Factions
The roots of the national-religious bloc in Israel trace back to the founding of Mizrachi and the historical National Religious Party, which traditionally balanced religious observance with state integration. Over the decades, however, a more radical wing emerged, influenced by the ideological teachings of Rabbi Meir Kahane and the Gush Emunim movement. This theological shift emphasized territorial integrity, Jewish sovereignty over biblical lands, and a rejection of territorial compromise as a religious duty. In 2012, Michael Ben-Ari and other far-right activists founded Otzma LeYisrael, which eventually evolved into the modern Otzma Yehudit party.
To consolidate these fractured right-wing elements, Prime Prime Minister Netanyahu personally intervened in successive elections, culminating in a joint slate during the 2022 campaign. According to comprehensive reports by the New York Times, this strategy successfully propelled both Smotrich and Ben Gvir into senior cabinet positions, giving them unprecedented executive authority. Smotrich assumed the role of Finance Minister with sweeping civilian authority over the West Bank, while Ben Gvir secured the National Security Ministry. Despite this shared governance, their disparate organizational styles and personal ambitions eventually made a continued alliance unsustainable, leading to their official split in August 2026.
Key Factional and Electoral Data
- Electoral Threshold and Splinter Risks: Political parties in Israel must secure at least 3.25 percent of the national vote to enter the 120-seat Knesset, meaning any party falling below this mark loses all its votes.
- Refusal to Consolidate Slates: Itamar Ben Gvir rejected direct pressure from Likud to merge Otzma Yehudit with Religious Zionism, publicly accusing Prime Minister Netanyahu of attempting to weaken his independent political standing.
- Emergence of Amcha Yisrael: The right-wing field has been further complicated by the entry of retired Brigadier General Ofer Winter and his new party, Amcha Yisrael, which competes directly for religious nationalist voters.
Strategic Impasse and Coalition Vulnerabilities
The decision of Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism to run on separate slates introduces an unprecedented mathematical risk for the entire Netanyahu bloc. Analysis published by the Financial Times highlights that several right-wing factions are currently hovering dangerously close to the electoral threshold, meaning tens of thousands of conservative votes could be entirely voided. In response to this danger, Smotrich moved to stabilize his prospects by forming a joint list with Moshe Feiglin’s Identity party, securing a modest buffer. However, Ben Gvir’s refusal to merge his faction has left Likud strategists warning that a fractured right could inadvertently pave the way for a center-left coalition led by Gadi Eisenkot.
This political division is further exacerbated by the different rhetorical strategies adopted by the two leaders during the 2026 campaign. As documented in a detailed report by CNN, Ben Gvir has leaned into provocative social media campaigning and highly polarized messaging regarding security prisoners to solidify his base. In contrast, Smotrich has focused on institutional goals under his campaign slogan, directing resources toward changing demographic realities in the Negev and Galilee. This strategic divide reflects a fundamental divergence in how each leader intends to reshape the state, with Smotrich utilizing bureaucratic levers while Ben Gvir leverages public populism.
Future Implications for Israeli Governance
The outcome of the October 2026 elections will ultimately determine not only the viability of the national-religious movement but also the fundamental direction of Israeli domestic and foreign policy. If these right-wing factions manage to cross the threshold, they will likely demand even greater concessions from Netanyahu in any future coalition negotiations. Conversely, if either party fails to secure parliamentary representation, it could dismantle the conservative bloc's hold on power, shifting the country toward centrist governance. This internal power struggle underscores the high-stakes environment where personal rivalries and structural changes continue to redefine the Zionist political spectrum.